Solar Flares, Coronal Mass Ejections and Solar Wind - 3/11/2010 4:15:00 PM

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2010 Mar 11 2201 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 070 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2010

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Todays activity consisted
of a few, low-level B-class events. The largest of these was a B4/Sf
at 2039Z from Region 1054 (N15E43). This region showed steady growth
throughout the day and is classified as a D type group. The total
sunspot area increased to about 160 millionths near the end of the
period. New Region 1055 (S23W15) also continued to emerge slowly and
is currently a C-type group with about 30 millionths in area.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for an isolated C-class flare from
Region 1054 or 1055.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled at mid latitudes and was
mostly unsettled to active at high latitudes. However, there were
some isolated storm intervals at high latitudes between 0000-1200Z.
Solar wind observations from ACE showed elevated velocities around
460-500 km/s with low density (1-3 p/cc). The signatures are
consistent with a weak high speed stream, presumably from the
southward extension of the northern polar coronal hole.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next two days (12-13 March). An
increase to quiet to unsettled is possible on the third day (14
March) due to effects from a recurrent solar sector boundary.

III.  Event Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Mar 084
Predicted   12 Mar-14 Mar  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        11 Mar 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar  005/005-005/005-007/007

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/25
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/30
Minor storm           01/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05

EIT 171	EIT 195	EIT 284	EIT 304
STEREO Movie		Solar Wind
Auroral Oval		X-Ray Flux
MDI Continuum	MDI Magnetogram	LASCO C2	LASCO C3
STEREO BEHIND		STEREO AHEAD