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Solar Flares, Coronal Mass Ejections and Solar Wind - 2/4/2012 8:15:10 AM

Solar X-rays		Geomagnetic Field

Auroral Oval		X-Ray Flux


ACE Real-Time Solar Wind		Satellite Environment Plot

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2012 Feb 03 2200 UTC


Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 034 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  The disk and
limb was quiet and stable with no Earth-directed CMEs observed
during the period.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (04 - 06 February).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
high latitude active periods due to the waning effects of a
geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream.  During the period, ACE
satellite observations indicated wind speeds averaged about 425 km/s
while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field varied
between +/- 5 nT.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (04 -
06 February).

III.  Event Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Feb 111
Predicted   04 Feb-06 Feb  110/110/105
90 Day Mean        03 Feb 141

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb  003/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb  004/005-005/005-004/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01