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Solar Flares, Coronal Mass Ejections and Solar Wind - 10/31/2014 6:15:00 AM

Solar X-rays   Geomagnetic Field
 
Auroral Oval X-Ray Flux
AURORAL OVAL - 10/31/2014 6:15:00 AM X-RAY FLUX - 10/31/2014 6:15:00 AM
 
ACE Real-Time Solar Wind Satellite Environment Plot
Satellite Environment Plot - 10/31/2014 6:15:00 AM ACE Real-Time Solar Wind - 10/31/2014 6:15:00 AM

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2014 Oct 30 2200 UTC


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2014


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
30/0135Z from Region 2192 (S15W94). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (31 Oct) and likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 365 km/s at
30/0844Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 30/2003Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/0808Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2252 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (31 Oct,
01 Nov, 02 Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (31 Oct).


III.  Event probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     10/05/05
PCAF       green


IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Oct 140
Predicted   31 Oct-02 Nov 130/130/130
90 Day Mean        30 Oct 141


V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov  008/008-008/008-008/008


VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor Storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    35/35/35

STEREO Movie Solar Wind
EUVI 195 - 10/31/2014 6:15:00 AM SOLAR WIND - 10/31/2014 6:15:00 AM
 
Solar Dynamics Observatory
 
EIT 171 EIT 195 EIT 284 EIT 304
EIT 171 - 10/31/2014 6:15:00 AM EIT 195 - 10/31/2014 6:15:00 AM EIT 284 - 10/31/2014 6:15:00 AM EIT 304 - 10/31/2014 6:15:00 AM
 
MDI Continuum MDI Magnetogram LASCO C2 LASCO C3
MDI CONTINUUM - 10/31/2014 6:15:00 AM MDI MAGNETOGRAM - 10/31/2014 6:15:00 AM LASCO C2 - 10/31/2014 6:15:00 AM LASCO C3 - 10/31/2014 6:15:00 AM
 
STEREO BEHIND STEREO AHEAD
BEHIND EUVI 195 - 10/31/2014 6:15:00 AM AHEAD EUVI 195 - 10/31/2014 6:15:00 AM
Solar X-rays

Geomagnetic Field

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Winter is coming ... to Titan's south pole

NASA's MAVEN studies passing comet and its effects

Origin of moon's 'ocean of storms' revealedOrigin of moon's 'ocean of storms' revealed



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